Archive for October, 2006

Hofstadter’s Law

Monday, October 30th, 2006

I realize recently that successive changes in my schedule to ship’s embarkation is frustrating. Take into consideration the time you have to waste not making money and the money you have to spend doing nothing. They are actually proportional to each other. It’s bad business to consider.

In programming there is this popular adage, the Hofstadter’s Law. It states that It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law.

The complexity of this law is that it is recursive and taking all things into account, it is infinitely impossible to estimate something.

It is infinitely impossible for me therefore to say that the given estimate date of my departure is accurate. The good thing about changing dates is that the location for my joining port keeps on changing also. I already have three different country visas. The latest is Italy.

So Im considering my options without having to expect any date:

1. kill time by sleeping, reading or watching boring tv shows everyday.

2. party ( but this is bad business because money is an issue).

3 or, spend the rest of my time writing blogs.

4. or, count the stars

the difference between counting sheeps is that stars are definitley impossible to estimate while sheeps population is in a way predictable. To rely on something finite will be frustrating because the tendency is it will be more than we could expect while on the infinities it would not matter because it is impossible in the first place.

So we always search for the greater gods.

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I have a funny version of the boy who cried wolf, the only difference is that after the third false attempt of the boy crying "wolf" "wolf", the villagers still come and finding out that it was only a joke simply thrash the boy with all kinds of cussings. The fifth time they still came. And once in a while there are really wolves. But the boy continues fooling them. And they still keep coming because of doubt that there are really wolves. The sad part is that it seems to go on forever and it was tiring for the villagers (as well as to the boy who cries wolf) The ending is that it became a tradition and lost the meaning of it all. That they are fools.

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The rule of the thumb according to programmers for this law into consideration is to double the number and step the higher units of your estimate. So if im supposed to go on Nov 15, that would be  7 days from now, i would actually be leaving after 14 weeks. Darn.